A very recent article follows in the footsteps of many others talking about how the promise of autonomous cars on roads is a little further off than many pundits have been predicting for the last few years. Readers of this blog will know that I have been saying this for over two years now. Such skepticism is … Continue reading AGI Has Been Delayed
Just last week Rich Sutton published a very short blog post titled The Bitter Lesson. I’m going to try to keep this review shorter than his post. Sutton is well known for his long and sustained contributions to reinforcement learning. In his post he argues, using many good examples, that over the 70 year history … Continue reading A Better Lesson
On January 1st, 2018, I made predictions (here) about self driving cars, Artificial Intelligence and machine learning, and about progress in the space industry. Those predictions had dates attached to them for 32 years up through January 1st, 2050. So, today, January 1st, 2019, is my first annual self appraisal of how well I did. I’ll try … Continue reading Predictions Scorecard, 2019 January 01
[This is the fourth part of a four part essay–here is Part I.] We have been talking about building an Artificial General Intelligence agent, or even a Super Intelligence agent. How are we going to get there? How are we going get to ECW and SLP? What do researchers need to work on now? In … Continue reading [FoR&AI] Steps Toward Super Intelligence IV, Things to Work on Now
[This is the third part of a four part essay–here is Part I.] If we are going to develop an Artificial Intelligence system as good as a human, an ECW or SLP say, from Part II of this essay, and if we want to get beyond that, we need to understand what current AI can … Continue reading [FoR&AI] Steps Toward Super Intelligence III, Hard Things Today
[This is the second part of a four part essay–here is Part I.] As we (eventually…) start to plot out how to build Artificial General Intelligence there is going to be a bifurcation in the path ahead. Some will say that we must choose which direction to take. I argue that the question is complex … Continue reading [FoR&AI] Steps Toward Super Intelligence II, Beyond the Turing Test
God created man in his own image. Man created AI in his own image. Once again, with footnotes. God created man in his1 own image.2 Man3 created AI in his3 own image. At least that is how it started out. But figuring out what our selves are, as machines, is a really difficult task. We … Continue reading [FoR&AI] Steps Toward Super Intelligence I, How We Got Here
A story on how far away self-driving cars are just came out in The Verge. It is more pessimistic than most on when we will see truly self-driving cars on our existing roads. For those of you who have read my blog posts on the unexpected consequences and the edge cases for self-driving cars or my technology adoption predictions, you will … Continue reading Bothersome Bystanders and Self Driving Cars
Past is prologue1. I mean that both the ways people interpret Shakespeare’s meaning when he has Antonio utter the phrase in The Tempest. In one interpretation it is that the past has predetermined the sequence which is about to unfold–and so I believe that how we have gotten to where we are in Artificial Intelligence … Continue reading [FoR&AI] The Origins of “Artificial Intelligence”
This last week has seen an MIT Technology Review story about a startup company, Nectome1, that is developing a mind-uploading service that is “100 percent fatal”. The idea is that when you are ready, perhaps when you are terminally ill, you get connected to a heart-lung machine and then, under anesthesia, you get injected with chemicals that … Continue reading Time Traveling Refugees